Viewing archive of Friday, 6 April 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1450 (N16W45) produced a long duration C1/Sf flare that peaked at 05/2110Z. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed a partial halo CME at 05/2125Z. Associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps were also observed with an estimated shock speed for the Type II of 360 km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with C-class flares expected for the next three days (07-09 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (07 April). Unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (08-09 April) with a chance for isolated active levels due to the anticipated arrival of the CME from Region 1450 and the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The latest model run shows the CME to be potentially geoeffective with an estimated speed of 845 km/s and is expected to arrive late on the 08th/early on the 09th of April.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Apr 097
  Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr  105/105/110
  90 Day Mean        06 Apr 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Apr  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  006/005-007/010-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm15%25%30%
Major-severe storm05%10%25%

All times in UTC

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