Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Multiple C-class events were observed during the period with
the largest event being a C2/Sf x-ray flare from new Region 1475
(N05E61). Even though Region 1475 is magnetically classified as an
alpha group, it remains responsible for a majority of todays
activity. There are currently seven sunspot regions on the disk,
with many regions stable or in a waning phase. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (04 - 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (04 -
06 May).
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 114 Predicted 04 May-06 May 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 03 May 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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