Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 March 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 1430 (N21W42) produced a C8 flare at 10/1552Z and Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long duration M8 flare at 10/1744Z with an associated Tenflare (459 sfu) and a Type IV radio sweep. Both flares had associated CMEs. The first CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1624Z with the majority of the ejecta off the NW limb. The second CME, associated with the M8 flare, first appeared in C2 imagery at 10/1800Z. Further analysis will be done as imagery becomes available, however initial analysis indicated the event produced a full-halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed between 1200 - 1400 km/s. Region 1429 remained a large Ekc spot class with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic class. A new region appeared on the ENE limb near Region 1432 (N16E52). Close proximity to the limb made a detailed analysis of this new region difficult.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (11 - 13 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels with periods of major storming at higher latitudes between 10/0600 - 1200Z. Activity was due to the continued effects of the 07 March CME. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft has gradually decreased from approximately 580 km/s to near 450 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV and greater than 100 Mev proton events are on going. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled early on day 1 (11 March) until the arrival of the 09 March CME followed by todays CME associated with the M8 flare. Models show an arrival of the first CME early to midday on 11 March which is expected to cause minor to major storm conditions with isolated severe storm periods likely. Initial estimates on the second CME indicate an arrival late on day 1. Activity is expected to continue into day 2 (12 March) with minor to major storm conditions with isolated severe storm periods possible. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels by day 3 (13 March).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
Class M80%80%80%
Class X40%40%40%
Proton99%99%60%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Mar 149
  Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar  155/155/155
  90 Day Mean        10 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  057/094
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  047/085-024/040-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm35%30%05%
Major-severe storm35%25%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%25%
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm75%55%10%

All times in UTC

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