Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 February 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to multiple C-class events from new Region 1419 (N28E77) which rotated onto the disk as a C-type group. This new spot group heralds the return of old Region 1402. New Region 1418 (S24E18) evolved on the disk as a B-type group while new Region 1420 (S13E77) rotated onto the disk as an H-type group. Region 1416 (S19W15) elongated along its axis and was classified as an E-type Beta group. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity, and a slight chance for X-class activity, for the next three days (13 - 15 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind speeds were steady through the period at about 340 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly north with a 3-hour period of southward Bz (-5 nT) from about 12/0600 - 0900Z. During this 3-hour period, the phi angle switched from a positive (away) to a negative (toward) orientation.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 February) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Late on day one and through day two (14 February), field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with high latitude minor storm intervals. This increase in activity is due to anticipated effects from the 10 February CME. Day three (15 February) will see a return of mostly quiet to unsettled levels as CME effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Feb 110
  Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb  120/125/130
  90 Day Mean        12 Feb 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Feb  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  011/012-014/018-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%20%
Minor storm15%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%30%
Minor storm20%30%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%01%

All times in UTC

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