Viewing archive of Monday, 16 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1402 (N28E53) produced a long duration event (LDE) early on 16 January. The LDE began at 16/0236Z, reached a maximum at 16/0444Z and ended at 16/0646Z. A partial-halo CME was seen lifting off the ENE limb, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 16/0342Z with an initial radial velocity of about 793 km/s. Model output indicated the potential for a glancing blow from the CME beginning late on 19 January. Other activity included a C5/Sf flare from Region 1401 (N17E51) at 16/1038Z. Both Region 1401 and 1402 doubled in area as they continued to rotate onto the visible disk. New Region 1404 (N12W29) emerged on the disk as a D-type group, while new Region 1405 (N13E65) rotated onto the disk as an H-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (17 - 19 January), particularly from the east limb complex of spots.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with isolated intervals of active to minor storm conditions at high latitudes. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged between 350 - 400 km/s through 16/0900Z. At that point, a gradual increase in wind speeds to about 500 km/s was observed with a corresponding southward dip to near -10 nT in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, on day one (17 January). Day two (18 January) should see a return to mostly quiet levels. By day three (19 January), the field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through a majority of the day. Late on 19 January, an increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected due to anticipated effects from a glancing blow from the 16 January CME.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 140
  Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  145/150/155
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/008-005/005-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%15%
Minor storm10%01%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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