Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1401 (N17E60) has been the most productive region, producing multiple C-class events. The largest event of the period was C2 x-ray flare from around the west limb near old Region 1391 (N12, L=013). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk, with Region 1403 (S19E29) being numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days (16 - 18 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 January) and increase to quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 -18 January) as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jan 134
  Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        15 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jan  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%10%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm01%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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