Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1401 (N17E60) has been the most productive region,
producing multiple C-class events. The largest event of the period
was C2 x-ray flare from around the west limb near old Region 1391
(N12, L=013). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk, with Region 1403 (S19E29) being numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next
three days (16 - 18 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 January) and increase
to quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 -18 January)
as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 134 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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