Viewing archive of Monday, 19 December 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. A total of 9 numbered regions populate the visible disk. Regions 1376 (N19W31) has been the most active region in the past few days. The largest flare of the period was a B8 x-ray event at 1413Z from Region 1376. Both Regions 1381 (S18E10) and 1382 (S18E18) continue to grow and evolve and remain the most magnetically complex regions on the disk. Regions 1383 (N04E68) was numbered early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly low levels for the next three days (20 - 22 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be remain at quiet levels for the next three days (20 - 22 December). Even though quiet conditions are expected, a small coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on day 1 (20 December).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Dec 128
  Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        19 Dec 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  006/006-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%01%01%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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