Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1354 (S17E05) and 1356
(N15E42) each produced low-level C-class events. The largest event
was a C4 at 22/0404Z from Region 1356 which is classified as an
Fki-type group with a beat-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region
1358 (N20E80) was numbered today and is an Hsx-alpha type spot
group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (23-25 November) with a chance for M-class
activity from Region 1356.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (23-25
November).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 142 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 005/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| Major-severe storm | 07% | 07% | 07% |
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