Viewing archive of Monday, 21 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1354 (S15E17) and Region
1356 (N15E55) each produced a few low-level C-class events. Region
1354 showed slight decay in its trailer spots and is considered a
Dso-type spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region
1356 grew significantly in areal coverage as it rotated farther onto
the visible disk and is an Ehc-beta type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
throughout the period (22-24 November) with a chance for M-class
activity from Regions 1354 and 1356.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the period (22-24 November).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 141 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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