Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Frequent C-class flares occurred during the period, mostly from Region 1354 (S17E30). Region 1354 showed little change during the period, but exhibited a moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1357 (N17W18) was numbered and showed gradual spot growth. It produced a single low-level C-class flare during the period. A slow CME was observed off the northwest limb, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 images at around 20/1448Z. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 163 km/s and was likely associated with a filament eruption from the northwest quadrant. STEREO-A observations suggest the CME had an Earthward component, but further analysis will be required due to limited data.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (21 - 23 November) with a chance for an M-class flare from Region 1354.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet through the period (21 - 23 November). The above-mentioned CME is not expected to disturb the field during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Nov 140
  Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        20 Nov 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  001/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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