Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 20 2240 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::: SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1376 (N19W46) produced the largest event of the
period, a C2 event at 20/2036Z. Region 1376 also has shown the most
growth in areal coverage and magnetic complexity. A new region was
numbered today, Region 1384 (N12E61), as it rotated onto the east
limb. Several CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery but
none appear to have any Earth directed components.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (21 - 23 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days
(21 - 23 December).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 137 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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