Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. An M1 x-ray flare was observed at 14/1318Z from new sunspot Region 1401 (N15E73). Three other new regions were numbered in the past 24 hours, Region 1399 (S24E69), Region 1400 (S14W04), and Region 1402 (N26E75). Even though Region 1401 and 1402 have just rotated onto the visible disk, imagery and data from the STEREO B spacecraft has shown these regions are active.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for more M-class events for the next three days (15 - 17 January), as Regions 1401 and 1402 continue to rotate onto the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next two days (15 - 16 January). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day three (17 January) as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 132
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  004/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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