Viewing archive of Friday, 9 March 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 09 2210 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

**********CORRECTED COPY********** SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity reached high levels today. Region 1429 (N18W13) produced an M6 flare at 09/0353Z. Associated with this event was Type II (1285 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a full halo CME first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0426Z. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 850 km/s in STEREO B COR2 imagery. Separation and slight decay within the intermediate area was observed in Region 1429, however it still remained a large Ekc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. A new spot group rotated onto the NE limb and was numbered Region 1432 (N18E69). This new region is too close to the limb to accurately determine the spot and magnetic classification, however it produced a C9 flare at 09/2025Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels with a chance for X-class activity from Region 1429 for the next three days (10 - 12 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm conditions due to continued activity from the sheath region associated with the 07 March CME. At approximately 09/0049Z, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field started to rotate towards a more magnetically connected polarity. Bz continued to be negative for several hours reaching values near -17 nT with an approximate solar wind speed over 600 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with major to severe storm periods during the periods 09/0300 - 1500Z. Solar wind remained elevated around 600 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/0510Z is ongoing. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 07/0405 is ongoing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be under the influence of the current CME through early on day 1. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, are possible is expected as the CME continues to wane. Early to mid-day on day 2 (11 March), the CME associated with todays M-6 flare is expected to become geoeffective. Active to severe storm periods are expected with this event. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, are possible on day 3 (12 March) as conditions are expected to slowly dissipate.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
Class M80%80%80%
Class X40%40%40%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Mar 146
  Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar  150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  021/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  046/073
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  015/022-033/070-017/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%35%20%
Major-severe storm05%20%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm15%50%25%

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