Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 December 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were three, low-level C-class flares during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1367 (S18W89). Region 1367 showed signs of new flux emerging as it was rotating around the west limb. Region 1374 (S18E01) continues to be the largest group on the disk (140 millionths) and shows a very small delta configuration in the leader spot region, but was quiet and stable. Two erupting prominences which led to coronal mass ejections were observed: the first just entered the LASCO/C2 field of view at 12/1848Z, slightly west of the north pole and the second entered LASCO/C2 field of view at 13/0200Z off the southwest limb. Neither of these CMEs are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. There was an interval of unsettled levels from 0900-1500Z at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for day one (14 December). Quiet levels with a chance for some unsettled periods are expected for day two (15 December) due to a possible brief, glancing blow from an erupting prominence/CME that was observed on 11 December. Quiet levels are expected to prevail for the third day (16 December).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Dec 133
  Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec  133/132/130
  90 Day Mean        13 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Dec  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  005/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

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