Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1236 (N15W76)
produced a B4 flare at 25/1020Z. Region 1236 decayed to an Hsx group
with an alpha magnetic configuration, Region 1240 (S20W26) decayed
to an Axx group with an alpha magnetic configuration, and Region
1241 (N18W19) decayed to a Bxo group with a beta magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period, with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Observations
of solar wind from the ACE spacecraft indicated speeds remained
elevated between 540 - 634 km/s, as the coronal hole speed stream
persists. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (26 -
28 June).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 094 Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 094/092/092 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 006/007-006/007-006/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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