Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. No significant
flares were observed. Region 1236 (N16W92) is rotating off the west
limb today. Region 1241 (N18W32) remained a Bxo-beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period, with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period at high latitudes. Observations of solar wind
from the ACE spacecraft indicated speeds ranged from 595 km/s to 486
km/s, as the coronal hole high speed stream began to gradually
subside. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27
- 28 June). Quiet levels are expected on day three (29 June).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 090 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 088/086/086 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 005/006-005/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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