Viewing archive of Friday, 22 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 1254 (S24W42) and
1259 (N25E18) were both Dso Beta groups, remaining quiet and stable
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class flare over the next 3 days
(23-25 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the period, with the
exception of an isolated period of active conditions between
22/06-09Z due to night time sub storming. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with an isolated nighttime active
period possible on day 1 (23 July) from coronal hole effects.
Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for days 2-3 (24-25
July), as high speed stream effects are expected to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 092 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 092/092/090 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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