Viewing archive of Friday, 24 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were two B class
flares in the past 24 hours. Region 1236 (N17W61) was unchanged but
produced a B3 event at 23/2233Z and a B4 event at 1549Z. Region
1240 (S19W12) and new Region 1241 (N19W08) appeared to be slowly
growing but were small and stable. Region 1239 (N17W44) was slowly
decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Observations of
the solar wind from the ACE spacecraft indicated elevated speeds
between 590 - 630 km/s, consistent with a high speed stream from a
favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 096 Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 012/015-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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