Viewing archive of Monday, 14 June 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 14 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1081 (N25W86) produced a
C1.5 X-ray event at 14/1047Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for days 1-3 (15-17 June). Region 1081 has decayed to a Bxo Beta
region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for days 1-3 (15-17 June). A large southern pole extension
coronal hole is expected to become geoeffecive late day 1.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 073 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 072/072/070 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 008/008-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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