Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 June 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 13 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Region 1079 (S23W95) produced an M1.0/SF flare at 0539Z which was
associated with a Type II radio sweep. Regions 1079 and 1080
(S24W77) decayed to plage towards the end of the period. Region
1081 (N24W76) produced several C-class flares during the past 24
hours and maintains a beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for days 1 and 2 (14-15 June). Activity is expected to be very low
for day 3 (16 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet on days 1 and 2 (14-15 June). Conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated
active periods on day 3 (16 June) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream moving into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 076 Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 076/074/072 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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