Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 June 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next 3 days (16-18 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated minor
storm period at high latitudes from 0900-1200Z. An increase in
solar winds speed to 540 km/s was observed at ACE late in the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a slight chance for
an isolated period of minor storming on day 1 (16 June) due to
coronal hole effects. Conditions are expected to be quiet to
unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day 2 (17 June) and
mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (18 June).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 070 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 010/012-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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