Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 19 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The visible disk
remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind data
from ACE indicated the onset of a co-rotating interaction region at
about 19/0900Z in advance of a recurrent high speed stream. During
the period, solar wind speed increased from about 350 km/sec to
approximately 495 km/sec.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated active periods
on days one and two (20-21 May). Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on day 3 (May 22), as the high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 069 Predicted 20 May-22 May 070/070/072 90 Day Mean 19 May 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 012/018-010/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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