Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 18 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The visible disk
remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the period (19-21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for day one (19 May). Quiet to
unsettled, with isolated active periods, are expected on day two and
three (20-21 May). The increase is forecast due to the possible
onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 069 Predicted 19 May-21 May 072/072/074 90 Day Mean 18 May 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 005/008-008/013-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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