Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 February 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 06 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A new region emerged at a rapid pace today and was numbered Region 1045 (N24E15). The region produced several C-class events and a M2/Sn event at 06/1859Z. The region has grown to around 290 millionths of white light area coverage with a magnetic beta-gamma configuration and a possible delta magnetic configuration within its interior spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions, and a slight chance for isolated minor storming for the next three days (07-09 February). The increase in activity is expected due to CME activity from 02-03 February and a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Feb 088
  Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  090/092/094
  90 Day Mean        06 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  000/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Feb  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  012/012-012/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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