Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 10 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1040 (N30E18)
produced several B-class flares during the past 24 hours. Region
1040 continued to grow during the past 24 hours and is classified as
a Eao-beta group with 15 spots and an area of approximately of 130
millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 1040.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (11 January). Quiet, with isolated
unsettled levels, are expected on day two (12 January) as a coronal
hole moves into a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled levels,
with a slight chance for active levels, are expected on day three
(13 January).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 084 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 086/088/088 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/005-007/007-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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