Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 07 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1045 (N23W01) produced
two M-class events during the past 24 hours. The first was a M1 at
06/2137Z and the second was a M6/1n at 07/0224Z. The SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery observed a CME off the east limb with the first event and a
full halo with the second event. The M6 x-ray event had an
associated EIT wave, and a Tenflare of 170sfu. This region has
retained a magnetic beta-gamma configuration with a possible delta
magnetic configuration within its interior spots. A new region was
numbered today as Region 1046 (N25E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with M-class events likely. There is a slight chance
for a X-class event from Region 1045.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions for the
next three days (08-10 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream and CME effects.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 090 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 092/094/094 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 010/010-008/009-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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