Viewing archive of Friday, 5 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 05 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1043 (N23W46)
produced an A8 x-ray event at about 0200Z which was associated with
a faint CME. A second B2 flare occurred at 1338Z from a region on
the northeast limb. Newly numbered Region 1044 (N18W36) produced a
B3 xray event at 1903Z, but is a small, unipolar group so far. The
northern hemisphere coronal hole is nearing center disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (6-8 February), with only a slight
chance for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for day 1 (6 February). Unsettled to active
conditions with a slight chance for minor storming are expected for
days 2 and 3 (7-8 February). The increase in activity is forecast
due to possible effects from the CME observed on 03 February, as
well as the coronal hole mentioned in part 1A.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 078 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 080/083/085 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 005/005-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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