Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 04 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1043 (N26W33)
remains stable and has not produced any significant activity within
the past 24 hours. The return of old region 1040 remains evident in
EIT and SXI imagery, however, no spots have been reported. There is
a coronal hole visible in the northeast sector of the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar Activity is expected to remain
very low with only a slight chance for a C-class event for the next
three days (5-7 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with two periods of unsettled
conditions from 04/0000Z-04/0300Z and 04/0600Z-0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for day 1 (5 February). An increase to
unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions is expected on
day 2 (6 February), and unsettled to active conditions with a slight
chance for minor storming is expected on day 3 (07 February). The
increase in activity is forecast due to possible effects from the
CME observed on 02 February, as well as the coronal hole mentioned
in part 1A.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 074 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 075/077/080 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-008/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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