Viewing archive of Friday, 20 November 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 20 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1033 (N21E23), a Bxo-beta, has continued to grow in
size and sunspot number. Region 1032 (N16W03), a Bxo-beta, has shown
a slight decay in spots and area. No flares were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a slight chance for an active period
on day one (21 November) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream. Conditions are expected to be predominantly at quiet levels
for day two and three (22-23 November).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 076 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 012/012-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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