Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 November 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 21 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1033 (N18E07)
remains a Bxo-beta region. No significant flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The SOHO/C2 images observed a slow moving
(around 200 km/s) Earth directed CME at 21/0755Z. EIT images also
showed a wave pattern, associated with the CME, located in the
vicinity of a filament channel around S40E30.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations from the
ACE spacecraft indicate the continued influence of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed rose through the
period from 430 -575 km/s with Bz fluctuations from -8 to +9 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (22-24
November).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 076 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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