Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 October 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Oct 25 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1029 (N14W12) produced
several B-class events and a C1.5 flare at 25/0226Z. Region 1028
(N24W10) continues to decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance of an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet through the forecast period (26-28 October) due
to the coronal hole high speed stream rotating out of a geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 076 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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