Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 October 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Oct 24 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
Region 1029 (N14W01) is now a 13-spot bipolar sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. One period of unsettled
conditions was observed between 1800 - 2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (25 October) in
response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet
conditions are expected on days two and three (26 - 27 October).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 076 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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