Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 17 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low. One C-class event occurred
from Region 1035 (N30W32), a C1/Sf at 16/2149Z. There were numerous
B-class events throughout the period. Region 1035 has grown in area
to approximately 210 millionths. However, the region has lost its
delta magnetic configuration and is now a beta.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region
1035.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during days 1-2 (18-19 December). An increase
to unsettled to active levels is expected on day three (20
December). The increase is forecast due to the expected arrival of
the CME observed on 16 December.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 087 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 005/005-005/006-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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