Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 November 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Nov 06 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1007 (N35W84) was
stable as it approached the west limb. No new active regions were
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high during most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to range from active to minor storm levels with a chance
for major storm levels at high latitudes on day 1 (07 November) due
to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected
to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 2 (08 November). A
further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3
(09 November) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 069 Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 069/070/070 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 001/001 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 020/030-010/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
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