Viewing archive of Friday, 10 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 10 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A new region was numbered
today as Region 1004 (S08W17).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for 11 October. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected for 12-13 October as a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 069 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 069/069/070 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 005/005-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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