Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 September 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 13 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours and the visible solar disk remains
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels for 14
September due to the approach of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream. Predominately unsettled to active conditions, with isolated
major storming at high latitudes, are expected for 15 September,
Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for 16 September.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 066 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 010/015-015/020-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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