Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 September 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 14 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speeds measured at the
ACE spacecraft indicate a gradual increase in velocity. As the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream approaches, speeds have
increased from about 285 km/s to around 350 km/s over the last 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated periods of
active conditions for 15 September due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16
September, with mostly quiet conditions expected for 17 September.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 067 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 015/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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