Viewing archive of Monday, 15 September 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately unsettled to active. An
isolated quiet period was observed at 15/0000Z. The increase in
activity is in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole high
speed stream. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft
indicated an increase from approximately 390 km/s to 610 km/s during
the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions on day one (16 September). Predominately quiet with
isolated unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three
(17-18 September) as the coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 068 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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