Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1005 (N27E28) is a
beta magnetic configuration and has six spots visible in white
light.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. Solar wind
speed as observed by ACE indicate the continued influence of the
coronal hole high speed stream. Velocities average well above 500
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 13-14 October.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 15 October.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 070 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 072/072/073 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 020/037 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 007/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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