Viewing archive of Friday, 7 November 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Nov 07 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless during most of the period. Region 1007
(N35W97) was stable as it crossed the west limb early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) commenced early in
the period. Solar wind velocities gradually increased from 282 to
511 km/sec during the period. IMF changes associated with the CH HSS
included increased Bt (peak 14 nT at 07/1202Z) and intermittent
periods of southward Bz (minimum -10 nT at 07/2057Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to range from quiet to active levels on day 1 (08 November)
as the CH HSS continues. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet
to unsettled levels during the remainder of the period (09 - 10
November) as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 068 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 010/015-007/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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