Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 November 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Nov 05 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. An isolated low-level
B-class flare occurred. Region 1007 (N35W72) continued to gradually
decay as it approached the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high during most of
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (06 November). Activity is
expected to increase to active to major storm levels on day 2 (07
November) due to a recurrent hole high-speed stream. Activity is
expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 3 (08
November) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 068 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 068/069/070 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 005/005-020/030-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 35% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 50% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 05% |
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