Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 03 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled levels. Solar wind
speed remained elevated due to an ongoing high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
through day 1 (04 February). Activity is expected to diminish to
mostly quiet levels on days 2 and 3 (05-06 February) with the
departure of the high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 071 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 019/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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