Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 02 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Active
to minor storm levels occurred between 01/2100Z and 02/0600Z,
followed by quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the
period. A high speed stream with wind speeds of approximately 580 to
620 km/s was responsible for the increase in geomagnetic activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on days
1 and 2 (03-04 February) as the high speed stream continues.
Conditions are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled levels on
day 3 (05 February).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 072 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 012/015-010/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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