Viewing archive of Monday, 4 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 04 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. A weak, faint CME was observed in the STEREO-A
and STEREO-B COR2 coronagraphs beginning at 0923Z. The signature on
the ahead coronagraph gave the appearance of a limb event and the
signature on the behind spacecraft looked like a very faint halo
event. Associated disk signatures were clearly observed near S15E20
using the STEREO-B EUVI 195 images which showed an eruptive type of
event, likely the result of a filament eruption.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (05-07 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE
shows a continuing downward trend as the influence of the high speed
stream is waning. The solar wind speed at forecast issue time was
around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (05-07
February).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 071 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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