Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 February 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 05 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 3 days (06-08 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed at ACE continues its downward trend with current values around 420 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next two days (06-07 February). Activity is expected to be unsettled on the third day (08 February).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Feb 071
  Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        05 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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