Viewing archive of Monday, 7 January 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 07 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 980 (S06W03) produced a
C1 x-ray flare today at 1527Z. The group appears to be re-emerging
but is still small and simple. An eruptive event was observed near
plage Region 981 (N27W17) at about 0230Z and was associated with a
B1 x-ray event as well as a small CME observed by the COR2
coronagraph on the STEREO-B spacecraft.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (08-10 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active during
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed remained elevated throughout the
day due to the continuing influence of a high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the first day (08 January). Conditions are expected to
decline to quiet to unsettled for the second day (09 January) and
are expected to be quiet for the third day (10 January).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 078 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 080/080/075 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 010/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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