Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 October 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 24 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position on day one (25 October). Minor storm periods at middle latitudes and major storm periods at high latitudes are possible throughout the forecast period (25 - 27 October).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Oct 068
  Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  015/020-020/025-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%25%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%25%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm15%20%10%

All times in UTC

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