Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 November 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Nov 20 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. An isolated period of major storm conditions was observed from 20/1200 - 1500Z. Continued influence from a co-rotating interaction region and coronal hole high speed stream was seen by the ACE spacecraft through the summary interval. Solar wind speed ranged from approximately 440 km/s to a maximum of 510 km/s with Bz varying from +10nT to -16nT during the summary period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. On day one and two (21 and 22 November), activity should remain at unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm periods at middle latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes are possible due to the continued effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. Activity levels should decrease to quiet to unsettled conditions on 23 November.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Nov 070
  Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov  070/070/069
  90 Day Mean        20 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  025/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  018/020-015/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%20%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

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