Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 November 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Nov 21 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained under the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually increased during the first half of the period and reached a peak of 703 km/sec at 21/0920Z, then gradually decreased to a low of 601 km/sec by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 22 November as coronal hole effects continue. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 23 November as coronal hole effects subside. Quiet conditions are expected on the final day of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Nov 069
  Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  069/069/068
  90 Day Mean        21 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  010/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  012/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  012/015-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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