Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 October 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 25 2135 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions, major storm levels were observed at high latitudes. The ACE spacecraft observed a co-rotating interaction region at 25/1040Z. Solar wind speed has increased to approximately 700 km/s, and Bz has ranged between +/-17 nT, indicating the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions due to the coronal hole high speed stream throughout the forecast period (26 - 28 October). Minor storm levels at middle latitudes and major storm conditions at high latitudes are possible on day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Oct 067
  Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        25 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Oct  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  020/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%

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